ACCESSORIESmagazine.com

Trend Scouts Respond:

Is there a "megatrend"—be it economic, sociological, technical or otherwise—that could affect the fashion accessories industry?

Brouwer: Economic and global issues will continue to affect consumer attitudes and spending patterns. Any sudden negative event could have significant impact—both on specific purchases or the psychology of spending. Rising interest rates impacting credit card interest payments, combined with the likelihood of everhigher energy costs, may cut into discretionary spending for apparel and accessories.

Davidowitz: Spending on non-essentials will definitely decline this year. Americans have the highest debt in history—nor have they ever saved less than they are now. Also, we’re facing slower economic growth and rising interest rates.

Post: I expect a boom in small business, whether through work-at-home moms or ’Mr. Moms,’ or even Baby Boomers starting new careers after their corporate lives end. Small businesses will have major opportunities to create networks to help each other (such as co-ops and referral systems). Small businesses can also be perfect outsourcers for budget-conscious giants and new, ingenious ideas that will develop into big franchises.

Danziger: It’s all about shopping as an entire environmental experience, rather than just something to purchase. In the ’80s, it was all about shopping malls, while the ’90s was the decade of discounters. Right now, we’re in the decade of
luxury, but 2010 will be the decade of experience. We’re seeing this already in the form of children’s specialty chains like American Girl Place, and the Toys ’R’ Us store in Times Square, which houses a ferris wheel inside.

Zandl: There are three main factors to consider, as far as accessories are concerned. The first is the aging of the population: One Baby boomer turns 50 every seven seconds. Is anyone looking at accessories targeted to this age group from a fresh perspective? Moreover, the Hispanic influence will grow tremendously over the next decade. This is an extremely accessories-oriented segment of the population, and designers will need to immerse themselves in the culture to get the look right. Also, look for a ’freestyle attitude’ among young consumers who are not constricted by traditional definitions of accessories. For them, cell phones and iPods are the must-have ’accessories.’

Which accessory classifications will lead the industry in sales?

Davidowitz: We’ll see an explosion of luxury—particularly in jewelry and fur accessories. The percentage of American millionaires is up to 30 percent, and there is a greater gap than ever between the masses and classes. Conversely, the mass arena will be challenged, because it’s oversaturated.

Post: Look for a new form of personalization, as in ’customer-ization,’ throughout accessories to increase. The iPod is a perfect example of personalization. Companies and brands that have strong ties to their customers, such as iPod and Nike, have succeeded handsomely in the marketplace. Anything that conveys a sense of affordable luxury will be important.

Danziger: Fine jewelry and watches will sell successfully because they offer substance and endurance. They also provide experiential value; consumers regard them as investment purchases to pass along to their children or grandchildren. Handbags, small leathergoods and watches will prosper, as will the lower end of the luxury jewelry business.

Rudinsky: Jewelry, handbags, belts and casual footwear will be key this year. There are also several fashion megatrends at work: Fur has become almost seasonless, and metallic shine in leathers and metals spans every accessory classification.

What are the biggest changes and challenges you foresee at retail?

Brouwer: The need to carefully define the target customer, and differentiate the offering, is crucial. No business can thrive by trying to please everyone; the most successful retailers not only clearly identify their target customer, but anticipate what they need to do to either change with that customer or attract an altogether new market in the future. Offering consumers efficient shopping experiences is equally imperative. Successful brands and retailers will provide the right products quickly, conveniently and accurately. Retailers will be more selective in which brands they allow to create a presence within their stores, as the need to build their own brand(s) gains importance.

Post: I predict even greater convenience, with stores open 24 hours a day. In Tokyo, the ’C’ store is a trendwatcher’s destination, and a place for anyone who needs something now. Just as ATMs changed banking and the Internet has changed shopping, other 24-hour opportunities are on the way.

Cohen: We’ll see more big names at lower prices. The ’bottom’ is becoming a newfound nirvana for a lot of brands—look at Isaac Mizrahi at Target, Karl Lagerfeld at H&M or Oscar de la Renta at Macy’s. Otherwise, retailers need to become even more demonstrative and interactive: They need to tell consumers why they need a product, and then have the product speak to them directly. Pricing is also essential to this equation: Consumers will pay more if they understand the value of a product. The future will bring fewer sales, but more planned promotions. Consumers are trained to ’wait a few weeks until it goes on sale;’ therefore, retailers must give consumers a reason to buy beyond just price.

Rudinsky: I predict more ’in store’ shops, and even more outposting. Most notably, junior accessories will be outposted even more within junior apparel departments, yielding maximum exposure. Danziger: Luxury as a retail concept will grow. JCPenney’s recent hiring of a CEO from the luxury sector indicates that it will become a bit more upmarket. The Sears/Kmart merger shows that as a new entity, it’s staying with the mass market. The marketplace used to be a bell curve, although now, the middle ground at retail is having a hard time sustaining itself. The most growth will continue to occur at the luxury and value extremes.

Davidowitz: I foresee continued store closings and/or consolidations, as department stores keep merging to gain critical mass. And of course, there’s more competition in accessories than ever before. We know that accessories offer the highest gross margin per square foot, in relation to other categories.

Zandl: I think consumers seem a bit more upbeat in terms of their attitude toward the economy, but they’ve also been trained to shop for value and enjoy finding a good deal. This will be a challenge for retailers and manufacturers, although those offering something truly special will be able to convince consumers to be more extravagant in their purchases—at least more so than they’ve been in last few years. At the same time, the electronics, communications and technological categories (and their respective services, such as DSL lines) will continue to garner a bigger portion of disposable income.

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